Le Grand, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

822
FXUS66 KHNX 070505
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1005 PM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation Section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A warming trend is underway as triple digit heat will be seen
through early next week.

2. There is a 15 to 20 percent chance of high temperatures of at
least 103 degrees on Thursday before increasing to 40 to 60
percent chance during the weekend.

3. Minor fire risk with widespread minimum relative humidity
between 15 and 25 percent for the non-desert areas. Minimum
relative humidity expected to be less than 10 percent in the
Mojave Desert with breezy winds in the afternoon to evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Warming trend across the region as Four-Corners high continues
to build. 24 hour change in temperatures have shown a trend of
about plus 3 to 6 degrees. At this rate, will be within striking
distance of hitting triple digit temperatures today. While
Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees is
unfavorable outside to the Interstate-5 corridor, a few spot
will reach 100 degrees. PoE of 100 degrees is more favorable
starting Thursday and a possible heat-wave moves into Central
California. For the remainder of the period, hot, dry and
occasional wind will exist over California with minimal chances
of precipitation as the flow aloft moves monsoonal moisture away
from the area.

PoE still showing better confidence of widespread triple digits
starting on Thursday with even high percentages by the end of
the week. By Friday and the weekend, PoE of reaching 100 degrees
ranges from 70% to 90%, while at the same time, PoE of 105
degrees is 40% or less across the San Joaquin Valley. Therefore,
current thinking has the San Joaquin Valley less likely to
enter a significant heat-wave this weekend as afternoon highs
range from 99 to 104 degrees. Yet, with little change in the
overall weather pattern, will see minimal change in temperatures
as triple digits stick around for several days. Therefore, the
San Joaquin Valley will see triple digit temperatures reaching
into next Tuesday. Uncertainty in the longer range ensemble
analysis lowers the confidence levels for day seven.

Long range ensemble analysis has shown minimal deviation of
where it is positioning the center of the four-corners high.
This position will play a big factor in the transport of
moisture into the region. Ensemble winds aloft maintain a
southwesterly direction that will in turn will keep higher
precip-water values east of Central California. With a lack of
Monsoonal moisture pushing into Central California, convection
will be inhibited across the Sierra Nevada as the region remains
dry. While ensemble wind prognosis show only light breezy
conditions developing each afternoon, minor fire weather
concerns will exist due to the nature of how dry (especially
Kern County) conditions are across the West.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update:

VFR conditions are expected in the San Joaquin Valley for the next
24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

public...Molina
aviation....EW

weather.gov/hanford